Estimating probability of hackers

For statistics and cybersecurity only

Probability of hackers

30,000 Sites are hacked per day
3 million hacking attempts per year (80,000 per day) [src]
4,145 data breaches happen a year (14 per day)
Only 15% of malware and data breaches are reported
8e9 / ( 80,000 / 0.15 ) = 1/15,000

Tor users and darknet market users
According to tor metrics there are 6 mil tor users all time, and 2mil active.
Doing the math: 8e+9/6e+6 = 1/1,334 people have used tor, and 1/4,000 actively use tor.
Darknet users:
Darknet market users: 1,441,827 (1/5,548)
Darknet vendors: 50,501 (1/158,412)
total: (1441827 + 50501) / 8e+9 = 1/5,361 Darknet market users arrested: 0.67%


Malware Developers
450,000 new malware scripts are created a day (164.25 million per year) [src]
If each malware script copied itself a day, we would get 8e9/(450,000) = 1/17,778


For each 2k visitors you can expect one of them to have malicious intent
sources: https://www.innovationnewsnetwork.com/darknet-markets/410/
https://www.wired.com/story/white-house-market-dark-web-drugs-goes-down/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silk_Road_(marketplace)
https://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/alphabay-takedown

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